Owning palladium = a bet on EV adoption missing expectations and continued global interest in hybrid vehicles. Hybrids use 10-20% more palladium than standard ICE vehicles.
Prices bid up in '25 because of the above, coupled with supply shocks due to South African mine closures and Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A lot had to "go right" for this play to work. Given the structural headwinds tied to EV adoption, it's hard to get excited about the metal long-term.
$PALL trading just below the 200-day average and in a 35% drawdown from the YTD highs. Prices are very much tied to China economic health - given it accounts for ~25% of global demand.