Happy to share our Q4 2025 letter. Especially at a time when the future of internet and software business models are being questioned.
In it, we offer our take on:
- The "AI Scare Trade". The market is pricing in fear, not facts. These businesses aren't broken (yet), but investors are selling indiscriminately. - What's still investable? Software faces real headwinds - disruption to terminal value assumptions and forced pricing model shifts. But ~80% of a software company's value is trust, reliability, and headache-free solutions. That doesn't disappear overnight.
- Network effects are real moats. Gaming, ecommerce, consumer internet - they're all down substantially from highs. But as AI reduces barriers to entry, the barriers to scale go up. Distribution grows more valuable.
- Thoughts on $SE, after a -45% drawdown. We don't think the TikTok boogeyman is as scary as the market fears. In fact, the opposite.
- New Oriental $EDU exit. Originally bought near net cash, and business has stabilized since. Time to move on.
Full letter linked here: https://t.co/0WPoxoHt7t