The Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal is a signal we've been running for years that finds companies where the numbers don't match the narrative.
We started publishing it publicly on this very feed a few months ago. 21 calls. Every one posted.
Here are the receipts.
THE RESULTS (Feb 6 – Mar 13):
12/21 direction calls correct (57.1%)
+0.50% equal-weight portfolio return
+4.60% alpha vs S&P 500
The S&P 500 lost -4.10% over the same period.
WHERE THE SIGNAL WORKED:
The short side was dominant. 8 of 10 short calls hit.
MDB: +17.24%
ULTA: +13.67%
TXN: +9.75%
WDAY: +7.80%
CAT: +7.51%
SMCI: +6.46%
ON: +5.50%
JPM: +3.47%
When earnings quality deteriorates, the signal catches it.
WHERE IT DIDN'T:
Long side: 4 of 11. AXP (-12.38%) and CVNA (-13.48%) hurt.
And COIN. Our worst call. Short signal said sell — stock ripped +41%. We own that.
Transparency means showing the misses too.
THE CONTEXT:
There is a natural quarter lag. The signal refreshes across the full universe quarterly.
Small sample. But while most accounts were getting stopped out of leveraged longs, this signal was net positive and generating +4.60% alpha. In a down market, survival is the edge.
Every call. Every result. Public.
The data moves before the price does.
Not Investment Advice.
$PLTR $CVNA $AXP $MA $SYK $HUBB $CBRE $FIG $DASH $TWLO $JPM $CAT $COIN $WDAY $OSCR $MOH $ON $SMCI $TXN $MDB $ULTA $SPY
