Stevanato $STVN participated yesterday in one of the most "bullish" conferences I remember in terms of optimism and forward-looking commentary.
Some highlights:
- BDS is expected to grow DDs in the foreseeable future and engineering is expected to return to HSD growth with a 20-22% gross margin (both things are consistent with my model)
- Franco wants to double the company every 5-6 years, he believes it's realistic (I also do). At a constant multiple, this results in around a 12-15% CAGR, but the multiple maybe should be higher considering the business and its resilience.
- Management confirmed that HVS margins are between 40-70%, which is pretty good. I'd imagine that the margin mix within HVS should move higher as molecules become more complex. For context, 2025 BDS gross margin was 31.5%
- They described the remaining opportunity in GLP-1s: "GLP-1 today is at the beginning of the journey. Today, the penetration is between 6-8% worldwide." I wouldn't assume penetration should be 100%, but there's definitely significant runway left
All in all, great news!