$VSNT notes (spin-off from $CMCSA)
1) spin coming Jan 2026, 1 share of VSNT for every 25 CMCSA = ~145m s/o
2) linear cable networks (MSNBC, CNBC, Golf, USA Networks, etc.) -- sales declining 5% annually from 2016-2026E
3) initial 2026 guide = $6.275bn sales (3-7% decline) & $1.925bn EBITDA (7-14% decline) -- high chance of "melting ice cube" status
4) management targeting 50% revs from non-pay-TV sources by 2030 (vs. 17% today) -- via acquisitions + organic product launches
5) cash generation -- minimal capex/WC, targeting $1-1.2bn FCF in 2026 ($7.60/sh)
6) clean balance sheet -- $2.25bn net debt = <1.2x leverage (tons of capacity for M&A)
7) starting valuation -- initial share price $47 = $6.8bn market cap ($9bn EV) = 4.7x EBITDA / 6.2x FCF (low end of comp range)
8) my FV est. = $36-60/sh based on 4-5x EBITDA (assumptions in my write-up)
Sort of interesting here but not a slam dunk. Management mum on M&A plans, but not interested in horizontal deals (i.e. buying more linear networks).
Optionality for mega-deal / merger still on the table here.
(As a reference, $STRZ ($12) trades at 4x EBITDA with ~70% of revenue from non-linear sources)