Help me piece together this $MAGN situation...
1) guide is $360-380m EBITDA and $75-95m capex
2) debt is $1.72bn
3) "post-merger adj. FCF" is $75-95m
First, leverage situation looks ugly if they can't turn EBITDA in '26-27... they tout 3x target, but give themselves credit for yet-to-be-achieved $55m synergies? hmm... so it's really 4.7x levered right now
FCF -- they are maybe making this more difficult than needs to be... pre-merger CF + post-merger op cash flow = $150-170m but that includes $52m (YTD) cash costs for transaction, severance, etc. so maybe op cash flow is closer to $200-220m?
This would make sense at $370m EBITDA less $150m interest (zero cash tax / ignoring WC) = $220m
Is run-rate FCF closer to $115-125m (~$3.50/sh)?
Before getting excited about that... with debt at $1.72bn = 14x debt/FCF... this is going to take: 1) time; and 2) serious EBITDA/FCF growth