The Tungsten gang just don't stop winning. Been asked to check this post a few times, but hopefully now with players like Citrini commenting on the situation people will start taking it seriously.
Two demand pools fighting over one constrained supply.
Pool 1: Every NATO shell, every penetrator, every kinetic kill vehicle. Terminal consumption. Zero recycling. Rheinmetall targeting 1.1M shells/yr. None of that tungsten comes back.
(Confirmed depleted by Rheinmetall CEO himself. Backed by tax-free trade deal with Australia, specifically naming Tungsten.)
Pool 2: Every 3D NAND wafer. 200 layers. 200 tungsten depositions. Samsung just got told supply runs out in June. Qualification for alternatives takes 18 months they're skipping steps because there's no time.
(Samsung confirmation this is real. CAGR of AI infrastructure not slowing down.)
China controls 80% of tungsten powder. Japan specifically targeted with dual-use controls. APT up 557% in 12 months.
BUT THIS ISN'T ALL.
China has reduced total tungsten exports by 34% YoY with APT exports at literally ZERO in January-February 2026. But they STILL can't keep up with domestic demand. So what are they doing? IMPORTING Western supply at 738% YoY price increases. The country that owns 80% is now a net buyer.
This has never happened simultaneously in tungsten's history. Defence and semiconductors competing for the same molecule at the same time with no supply relief in sight. U.S. AI capex, U.S. defence, NATO, Asian semis INCLUDING CHINA -> all buying the same Western squeezed supply.
That's the supercycle. Not a war trade. Not a spike. A structural repricing of the most irreplaceable metal in the western supply chain.
So who's producing?
$EQR.AX - THE FRONT RUNNER
Two operating mines. 153,000 MTU/yr and scaling to 400,000. 60-80% of Western NDAA-compliant supply. A$147/MTU cash cost at Barruecopardo against $3,000 APT. Insiders buying NEW SHARES AND OPTIONS PRIOR TO QUARTERLY REPORT IN 3 WEEKS . EU-Australia FTA names tungsten directly and EQR sits on BOTH sides of that deal. Largest tungsten resource on the ASX at 11.27M MTU. Currently trading at 1/17th of $ALM per tonne of production.
$ALM -> The popular name but HUGE warnings. Sangdong just commissioned. Huge deposit. But CEO filed to sell $85M shares on March 23 (Doesnt look good when you are going into your most parabolic stage of your company). 17x more expensive per tonne of production than EQR. Priced for the future at $4.4B market cap.
$BMM -> U.S. domestic exposure. American soil. Pentagon-aligned. If the NDAA procurement ban from Jan 2027 drives demand to domestic producers, BMM benefits directly from "America First"
$GMTL / $TUNGF NATO exposure. European supply chain. If EU defence procurement follows the Critical Raw Materials Act, these are positioned.
The NDAA procurement ban goes live January 1, 2027. That's a legal floor under Western tungsten demand regardless of price, regardless of trade negotiations, regardless of whether APT is at $500 or $5,000.
New Western mines need 2+ years minimum. The squeeze has no relief valve.
NFA. Do your own research. But the fabs just confirmed what the defence primes already knew there's nowhere to go but up.
