@KobeissiLetter Gold miners down 25% during a war. That tells you everything about this market.
Gold is the classic flight-to-safety trade. It's supposed to rally when bombs drop. Instead it's getting sold alongside equities, bonds, and tech. We flagged this earlier this week when equities, bonds, AND gold all sell simultaneously, the only thing left is cash. That's not risk-off. That's a confidence crisis in all assets.
The reason is the same one breaking the bond market: real yields are surging. Gold doesn't pay a coupon. When the 30-year hits 4.986% and rate cuts get pushed to December 2027, the opportunity cost of holding gold explodes. Miners get hit even harder because they carry operating leverage on top of gold price exposure.
The October 2023 bottom you referenced happened when the market was pricing rate CUTS. That's the catalyst gold miners need to rally — a falling rate environment. We don't have that. We have the opposite.
The oversold reading is real. The catalyst to buy it isn't here yet. Same story as tech cheap gets cheaper until the rate path changes. $GOLD $SLV $DUST