$ALSN
Caught this pitch from Meryl Witmer in Barron's roundtable and liked it. Here are my notes:
1) Dominant market share (~80%) in transmissions for buses & class 6-8 trucks (on-highway)
2) Huge margins (30%+ EBITDA), but highly cyclical = long-run average P/E at 9-10x
3) Recently acquired off-highway business from $DAN for $2.7bn - adds $2.5bn sales & $350m EBITDA
4) Changes mix from 3% off-highway to >50% off-highway, international from 22% to 44%, transmissions now <50% of sales
5) Deal synergies + recovering end-markets + buybacks = EPS could hit $12+ by 2027-2028 (vs. $8-9 today)
6) Capital allocation heavily favors buybacks, this is a share cannibal having repurchased >65% of shares since 2012 IPO
7) Pro-forma leverage = 2.9x with a target of 2x -- blend of buybacks and debt paydown expected
At $115, shares trade at 10.5x 2027 EPS estimates. Risk/return looks balanced (1:1) unless you have a compelling view on multiple expansion.