@poconokid18 So I'll answer your question on timeline + beneficiaries post-regime change.
If Defense Minster accepts safe passage/amnesty, then it's a buy signal for stuff like $ASHM, $GHM, or $MVZ.B and companies post regime change.
$ASHM - largest holder of Venezulean debt. Bonds likely 100%+ higher re-rated if theres restructuring.
$GHM / $MVZ.B - Vacuum Ejectors for extra-heavy crude in Venezulea | Largest banks in Venezuela
There's a lot more companies like $ENR and $AMTB that would profit off the reconstruction too.
But right now there's now a political transition vacuum after the capture of Maduro. The defense minster Vladimir Lopez and FANB are still hostile with mobilized troops to defend. So, unlike 1989 Panama (~6w), Venezuela is a more "Iraq-style" risk, which could last:
~3-18 months.
Otherwise, there's asset risks from Chevron $CVX, while companies like $SU are good substitute during the institutional collapse (alongside the companies mentioned above to maintain the blockade + profit off supply disruption).